As the Catholic Church enters a defining chapter in its nearly 2,000-year history, the world turns its gaze to the Sistine Chapel in Vatican City, where 133 cardinals—the highest number in history—have gathered for the 2025 papal conclave. Their sacred mission? Elect a successor to Pope Francis, who passed away on April 21, 2025.
The conclave began today, May 7, and Ugandans, along with millions across the globe, are eager to know: When will we have a new pope? Here’s everything you need to know, from smoke signals and time conversions to historical context and election predictions.
What Time Should Ugandans Watch for the White Smoke?
Uganda, operating on East Africa Time (EAT), is one hour ahead of the Vatican’s Central European Summer Time (CEST). Here’s how the voting schedule aligns with Ugandan time:
- May 7, 2025 (First Day): Cardinals will enter the Sistine Chapel around 4:30 PM CEST (5:30 PM EAT) for an initial vote. The first smoke signal is expected at 10:00 PM EAT tonight.
- From May 8 Onwards: If no pope is elected on the first day, four votes will take place daily—two in the morning and two in the evening.
- Morning smoke: ~12:30 PM CEST → 1:30 PM EAT
- Evening smoke: ~7:30 PM CEST → 8:30 PM EAT
So, mark your evenings! The most likely time for white smoke is between 8:00 and 9:30 PM EAT, with another window at 1:30 PM EAT each afternoon.
How Long Might It Take? History Offers Clues
Here’s a quick look at the last five papal elections and how long they took:
2013 – Pope Francis
- Days: 2
- Ballots: 5
- Electors: 115
- White Smoke Time (EAT): March 13, ~8:06 PM
2005 – Pope Benedict XVI
- Days: 2
- Ballots: 4
- Electors: 115
- White Smoke Time (EAT): April 19, ~8:50 PM
1978 – Pope John Paul II
- Days: 3
- Ballots: 8
- Electors: 111
- White Smoke Time (EAT): October 16, ~8:18 PM
1978 – Pope John Paul I
- Days: 1
- Ballots: 3
- Electors: 111
- White Smoke Time (EAT): August 26, ~9:18 PM
1963 – Pope Paul VI
- Days: 3
- Ballots: 6
- Electors: 80
- White Smoke Time (EAT): June 21, ~1:22 PM
As you can see, evening smoke signals—between 8:00 PM and 10:00 PM EAT—are most common.
What to Expect from the 2025 Conclave
- Largest Conclave Ever: With 133 electors, a two-thirds majority means 89 votes are needed. Interestingly, 108 of these cardinals were appointed by Pope Francis, suggesting a leaning toward someone who may continue his progressive reforms.
- A Diverse College: For the first time, Europeans make up less than half of the electors. There’s strong representation from Africa, Latin America, and Asia—raising hopes for a pope from the Global South. Names like Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines) and Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana) are being whispered among Vatican watchers.
- A United Spirit: According to American Cardinal Timothy Dolan, pre-conclave discussions were “clear and focused,” which could mean a shorter conclave than expected.
Our Best Prediction
Given the schedule, voting pace, and historical precedents, white smoke is most likely on Thursday, May 8 or Friday, May 9, after 4–6 ballots.
If consensus comes quickly, expect the announcement around 9:30 PM EAT either evening. If voting continues into a third day (May 9), the rules call for a day of reflection before resuming on May 11. So, while May 10–11 is possible, it’s less likely.
A Moment of Global Significance
This conclave is not just a Vatican event—it’s a moment of global transformation. With 1.4 billion Catholics awaiting the Church’s next spiritual shepherd, the decision made behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel will ripple across the world.
For Ugandans, and indeed the entire East African region, this is a moment of unity, faith, and anticipation. The bells of St. Peter’s Basilica will ring. The crowd in Vatican Square will erupt.
Stay Tuned
We’ll keep you updated with the latest from the Vatican as soon as the white smoke appears.
Until then, keep your eyes on the chimney—and your hearts open in prayer.
Habemus Papam -“We have a Pope” may be just a few hours away.
